Anticipation investigation
This PR won't make it, but for future reference, Anticipation was the approach I tested heavily against ANSNA's feedback handling. A summary from our related discussions:
The key feature of any prediction feedback handling, applying to both Anticipation and Assumption of Failure:
- Truth expectation of the hypothesis should increase when successful and decrease when unsuccessful.
- Truth expectation should become more stable over time (comes for free, thanks to confidence increase in Revision)
Anticipation additionally features: 3. Anticipation doesn't add negative evidence at all if the hypothesis turns out to be successful.
Point 3 is nice theoretically. Practically it does not matter, because neither decision making nor prediction reliability relies on 3. they relie on 1 and 2 and only on 1 and 2.
Disadvantage of Anticipation:
- Effort to store anticipations and to match them to input until they expire
- Difficulty to make a proper deadline estimate. Advantage:
- Frequency can reflect success rate better.
For OpenNARS: No need to change to Assumption of Failure, as it would be a change without much gain. For ANSNA: Assumption of Failure is simpler, and has same effectiveness, hence ANSNA will stay with it. For ALANN: I suggest to also go with Assumption of Failure due to its simplicity.