Innovation: Monitoring for Prescribed Burning Windows

[nealmcloughlin]

As a Prescribed Burn Planner

I need a heads-up tool that monitors forecasted burning conditions over the next two weeks and notifies me if and when a burn location could be in prescription.

So That I can notify the Cultural and Prescribed Fire program what burns are expected to be in prescription, and when over the next two weeks. This will aid in the strategic use of limited prescribed burning resources and the successful implementation of burns.

Acceptance Criteria

• [ ] MVP Input: Consume long range ECMWF (0:00 model run) weather forecast 10-14 days into the future (Herbie). Project daily FWI System Indices using starting codes from representative weather station identified for the burn. Calculate expected Head Fire Intensity using the FBP System and fuel type identified for the burn. Very similar to MoreCast and FireCalc.
• [ ] MVP Output: Identify which days prescribed burn conditions are expected to be met in the long-range forecast period. Do this for each prescribed burn being monitored. Tabular display is sufficient for MVP.
• [ ] Create a simple user interface where prescribed burns and their associated conditions can be entered. I.e.) Fire Centre, Contact Email(s), Name of Prescribed Burn, Lat/Long coordinates for the burn, weather station, fuel type, and conditions associated with weather, grass curing, FWI, and Head Fire Intensity. You could also consider an option to upload the associated prescribed burn plans so they can all be found in one location. The intent is that prescribed burn planners can self-serve and enter their burns into the system without support from Predictive Services.
• [ ] Need the option to differentiate between Spring, Summer, and Fall conditions. The planner should also be required to provide a start date for each of these seasons. In doing so, we can stop monitoring for spring and fall burning conditions when we are in the summer period and vice versus.
• [ ] Need to be able to set the status of each burn entered as Active, On Hold or Complete. Monitoring for prescription conditions would only apply to the Active status. On Hold burns would be ignored until they are switched back to an active status. Burns marked as Complete would be archived so they don't clutter up the user interface.
• [ ] Even though we can't monitor for grass curing right now, we should still provide an option for planners to enter this condition for completeness. We can then use the ideal grass curing value when calculating fire behaviour for O-1 and C-7 fuel types.

Additional Context

• Ideas for a Cadillac application

  • Identify what days in the forecast period are most optimal for the burn. This could be based on a comparison of forecast and preferred Head Fire Intensity.
  • Visualize forecast weather for a burn and highlight were conditions are within prescription.
  • Map which burns are forecast to be in and out of prescription.
  • Evaluate conditions from multiple long-range weather forecasts to provide a confidence level.
  • Use climatological data to determine if the forecast weather is aligning with historical weather patterns.
  • Allow planners to query climatological data for how frequently their prescription conditions are met and at what times of the year.
  • Adjust forecast parameters for the elevation of the prescribed burn.
  • Find a way to monitor grass curing.

• Sample prescribed burn plans can be found here: https://bcgov.sharepoint.com/teams/03960/Shared%20Documents/Forms/AllItems.aspx?id=%2Fteams%2F03960%2FShared%20Documents%2FCultural%20and%20Prescribed%20Fire&viewid=61d525d4%2Df682%2D43a2%2Db28a%2Dcff08bc4ca72

• Planning a Burn: https://www2.gov.bc.ca/gov/content/safety/wildfire-status/prevention/prescribed-burning/planning-a-burn

Definition of Done https://github.com/bcgov/wps/wiki/Definition-of-Done

[nealmcloughlin]

• Question 1: How do we show the outputs generated by this application?
  • Could be a map, table, and/or dashboard.
  • Would be useful to have a Fire Centre filter.
  • Would be useful to see a provincial rollup of how many burns are coming into prescription in the next week.
• Question 2: What's the best way to send out notifications?
  • Could be an email, posted to Teams or (Cadillac) a mobile app push notification.
  • Could consider giving users a choice to subscribe to notifications they are interested in.
  • For MVP, we could send notifications to the Advanced Planning inbox and Teams channel. The Advanced Planner could then contact the Fire Centres and provide updates during Provincial Preparedness calls twice weekly.
• Question 3: Should we pull forecasts for the representative weather station or for the precise location of the prescribed burn?
  • Should we adjust the weather forecast to better represent the elevation of the prescribed burn? I.e.) Long-range weather forecasts use coarse Digital Elevation Models and may represent the burn site as too high or too low.
• Pull weather forecasts daily for 00Z and calculate FWI and HFI throughout the entire fire season.
  • Some prescribed burns may have different conditions to monitor for based on season or time of year.
  • We do not need to monitor a prescribed burn for the whole fire season if it is planned for a specific season or time of year.
• Where to Start?
  • Get Herbie wired up.
  • Tabular version is sufficient for MVP.
  • UX: A data entry form is essential for the CRx program to enter burns and monitoring criteria into the application.
  • Conversion of FBP equations in the R cffdrs package to Python. Check what is contained in Python code written by PSU staff.