MoreCast 2.0 SPIKE: Add Simple Ensemble to Morecast (TIMEBOX 2 DAYS)

[NicolasLivanos]

Describe the task A weather forecaster has mentioned the idea of a poor person's ensemble option in Morecast 2. The suggestion was to average the predictions of all the weather models.

Acceptance Criteria

• [x] Determine which models are needed for the ensemble
• [x] Determine how the ensemble works (reach out to SME)
• [ ] Be able to refine and estimate follow up task/story to implement

Additional Context

• Worth considering?
  • Regional Ensemble Prediction System Grib Data https://open.canada.ca/data/en/dataset/13e27861-bf00-599b-9b24-9a50dbfed7ed

[NicolasLivanos]

Global: US, Euro, NA? from Matt?

[rajpersram]

Research outcomes from interview with Matt M:

Models are needed for the ensemble:

• start with currently used models from MoreCast.
• later we can add the Euro and perhaps others.

How the ensemble works:

1. Aggregates a number of members (simulataneous model runs)
2. Applies spread of error to current date and forecasts for a set time frame, a week for example, using those members.
3. Display could be shown as a "whisker box" (aka. Candlestick, Box Plot)
4. Ideally, would be nice to choose models set to create a Forecaster's preferred members to generate their ensemble.

With the initial Discovery phase complete, the next steps are:

1. Anticipate what user workflows and challenges will be
2. Ideate into wireframes (keeping it simple)

[rajpersram]

• [x] Raj to set up a team meeting to cover all available discovery data, raise questions, and look at potential tools.

[rajpersram]

Potential MUI library?

https://modernize-nextjs.adminmart.com/charts/candlestick

[rajpersram]

Matt has been contacted to give feedback on the current design in Figma.